« Miserable Failure | Main | A drive from Eglin »
October 11, 2005
The Short Happy Life of Vince
I was checking out the National Hurricane Center's Website to see how far Global Warming would take us this year as far as Tropical Storms. Hurricane Stan had just blown himself off of Mexico and Tammy--while not the strongest of storms was certainly making her presense known off the southeast coast by deluging us with rain for several days going. What happened to the good old days of the 1990s when you could go three, maybe four years without any major tropical weather effect?
A storm was brewing in the middle of the Atlantic...and had it materialized, it would have enjoyed the rather unlikely name of "VINCE" (The first named storm with a "V" name). I immediately messaged my friend Vinny, who, having a name that starts with "V", really never expected to be remotely connected with a tropical storm. Alas, it didn't appear that the center-Atlantic system would do anything. However, another storm would soon form in the Eastern Atlantic, of all places:
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE.
Within hours, it would strengthen into something a bit more impressive.
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND 995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN IN MOST HURRICANES.
Indeed the hurricane was unusual, the forecest map had the hurricane center coming out of the map scale and right into northern Portugal.
But later on...
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
THE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED. MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING TREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER QUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH.
So was Vince truly a hurricane, or just an atmospheric anomoly? As of this morning, weather personnel didn't even seem secure on its location:
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005
VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT 00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED. VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. WITH NO DATA T NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER IS UNWARRANTED.
The weather people were having a bit of fun with this one:
AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SPAIN.
Another Tropical first for the 2000s? How many "firsts" are going to occur before someone realizes that hey, this is more than just a series of unusual weather patterns. I discussed this before, when talking about last year's "first" a South Atlantic hurricane in March (See Weather Observations).
Anyone who says that there is no global warming either has their head in the sand or is lying for corporate interests. The evidence is getting stronger and more powerful on a weekly basis.
As far as Vinny, he's got his storm. And it's an historical first. Congratulations, Vince.
Posted by Bastique at October 11, 2005 11:54 AM
Comments
Yes I got my storm and like me ... my storm wants to go to Europe :-) ... Spain would be nice this time of year ... don't you think?
Posted by: Vinny at October 11, 2005 4:32 PM